October Dip

My store has seen tremendous sales growth post COVID, a lot of that is a result of expanding inventory. Common in the game trade, we are somewhat dependent on new releases for profitability. We are "front list driven," meaning we make our money on new stuff, rather than selling the same old stuff. October has always been a slow month, as there must be some common wisdom to avoid new releases in this month. I'm talking about my top 20 publishers that make up 80% of our sales. There are plenty of board games and RPGs releasing right now that will languish for another six weeks. 

I have a calendar spreadsheet tracking sales, and when there's a projected profitable release, I change the background of that day to green. These green days help me forecast. September and November have three "green days," releases where we'll make windfall profits. October has none, although the one off October release of the D&D Dungeon Master's Guide might move the needle. 

This pattern of hot September and November and slow October repeats itself year after year. I draw down inventory in September and try not to spend money, knowing bills will be due in a lean October. I may borrow money in October to cover expenses and pay it off with holiday sales (hopefully). The October dip is about a 30-40% decline compared to sales in September and November. This pattern has repeated for as long as I've run the business, although the depth of the dip is exaggerated because of the increased height of the surrounding months. 

The solution, if there is one, is attempt to make your own rain. Perhaps have special sales in October, although people are not buying as much (perhaps why releases are thin). We've had a couple big clearance sales. I would prefer to shift sales to Black Friday, but November doesn't need any help. October sales are up 10% so far this month, compared to last October, but that's not enough. Perhaps there is no solution. Every business will have a slowest month. Some will know it in advance. As much as it pains me to save up for slow times, at the moment that's the strategy that seems to work best. It does feel defeatist. I want to be the raging bear all the time. I don't want to hibernate. Rarr.