Trump Tariffs and the Flight to Quality

My first impression is that the new tariffs will increase my store’s cost of goods by around 23 percent, most of which will be passed on to consumers. I already had the spreadsheet made.

There will be a big attempt to pivot away from problematic products. This 23 percent amounts to hundreds of thousands of dollars in what amounts to a tax, just pushed down the chain to the end user.

Here’s what I expect to happen:

• Some games will become clearly untenable because they’re simply too expensive to carry. An $80 Catan? Sure, we'll keep carrying it, but we won’t be selling nearly as many.

• Other games may seem viable at first, but as customer behavior shifts, we’ll end up stuck with them. That means we need to be more cautious. This always happens during a recession, and...

• There will likely be a recession.

• Inflation is likely to spike.

• Unemployment could double, over 7%. That’s what economists are predicting.

We’ll probably see a “flight to quality,” where people adjust their spending habits. Big purchases like cars and vacations might get postponed. But hobby games? People will still buy them—even more so, even at 23 percent higher prices. Hopefully from me still.

This will definitely change our product mix. Board games and non–Games Workshop miniature lines could start to disappear from our shelves.

If I had to guess, I’d go through our best-selling board games, cut projected sales in half, and keep only the ones that still meet our metrics. I think about 20 percent of our current lineup will make the cut. We carry a lot of marginal board games. We carry a lot of marginal everything.

It’s possible we no longer carry marginal things—anything I wouldn't order by the case. That’s not good news for the game trade.

We’ll probably survive. We might even prosper. We’re selling life preservers on the Titanic. Great! Until your socks get wet.

This is not madness. It’s simply a regressive tax that helps fund tax cuts for the wealthy. There was nothing wrong with the previous economic order. Nobody was getting taken advantage of. Manufacturing isn’t going to change locations. The job market won’t fundamentally shift. We certainly won’t be hiring for a while.

Pokemon Supply and Demand

Balancing supply, demand, allocations, and the realities of a collector-driven market.

Pricing hot Pokémon products isn’t just about looking at TCGplayer and slapping on a price tag. It's a balancing act between cash flow, allocations, local demand, and national market trends. Here’s a look at how I approach it—and why it’s more complicated than it might seem.

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The First Variable: Paying the Bill

When I receive a Pokémon set, I usually have 30 days to pay the invoice. However, most sets are meant to last through a 90-day release cycle. I don’t want to sell out in 30 days just to cover the bill. I'd rather pace my sales over the full release period and focus on maximizing value, not just speed.

Being a legitimate Pokémon retailer also means I need to have Pokémon product available consistently. Going two out of every three months without stock damages customer trust—and it's often the result of allocation issues.

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Allocation Lessons from the Auto World

To illustrate this, let’s talk about BMW.

Years ago, I looked into buying one and learned their dealerships didn’t play the end-of-month sales game. Why? Because they operate on yearly product allocations. If a dealer only gets 150 cars a year, there’s no reason to hustle to sell car #100 in July. They can’t call the factory and get more.

Instead, they maximize profit per unit and pace their sales based on the year’s allocation. I once found a loophole with European delivery, which didn’t pull from the dealership’s allocation—similar to a customer walking into a game store and asking to buy product direct from the distributor, with the store just passing it through for a small margin.

Some dealers said yes. Others said no. But the model is the same: allocation controls behavior.

Snowy Munich in January on summer performance tires is another story...

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Pokémon Supply: 30-Day Invoice, 90-Day Plan

Back to Pokémon. Even though my bill is due in 30 days, the more important variable is how long the product needs to last. If my allocation is meant to cover 90 days, I plan accordingly.

This is where supply-side logic becomes critical—especially in a collectibles market where reprints aren’t guaranteed.

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Demand: Local Appetite vs. Online Market

On the demand side, I consider both local interest and national pricing trends. Right now, a booster box of Journey Together is selling online for $244. My customers know this. If my price is even a bit higher, they’ll shop online instead.

At this high price point, price sensitivity increases. People compare. They wait. They choose convenience or savings.

Locally, Journey Together is cold. So many customers have washed their hands of it, they’re already asking to preorder the next set—which, ironically, I have even less faith in. I don’t want to sell them a $450 box with unknown supply and potential price collapse. And let’s be honest: they don’t want a $450 box. They want a $145 one.

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Sometimes, Market Prices Leave Your Community Behind

If the market price is too high for your local scene, you’ll eventually need to adjust downward to build momentum. But for me, right now, that’s not urgent. My Journey Together allocation was slashed. I have about 75% of my usual quantity—and it needs to last one to three months.

At current prices, that’s only about a three-week supply—not ideal. If sales were hotter, I’d raise prices above market. If I needed to move it fast, I’d price well below. That’s exactly what I’m considering for the slow-moving One Piece set right now.

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Why This Looks Like a Black Box

To my staff and customers, pricing sometimes feels arbitrary. They’ll notice when we’re above or below market and ask why. The truth is, I’m often not watching the market that closely—until sales start changing. Sales velocity is my signal. When it shifts, I look at pricing. Pricing, after all, is a variable within that velocity.

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What I Really Want (And Probably Won’t Get)

Ideally, I’d have unlimited Pokémon boxes selling at a healthy 35% margin. Instead, I get limited product, slower sales, and a higher 62% margin. As a store owner, I don’t want to deal with allocations and math problems—I want happy customers and a steady flow of product.

But that’s not the system we’re in.

And while many of my peers are angry with Pokémon for underprinting sets, I’m not sure who’s at fault. Right now, there’s nothing but Pokétrash left to order. My backorders trickle in, but the rest of the product line is obliterated.

Publishers often claim victory when a set sells out—but for stores, that’s rarely a win.

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The Kid Problem

Many Pokémon customers are kids. A $244 box means $6.78 per pack. I can’t sell them for less—although some official events distort pricing with artificially low promos. I also can’t steer them to cheaper sets, because I simply don’t have anything else.

That’s the real dilemma: skating from one allocation-restricted CCG release to the next while trying to run the rest of the store like a normal business. For some game stores, this CCG nonsense is the business.

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Magic Isn’t Much Better

Magic players aren’t immune to the chaos, either. There’s a ton of speculation around the Final Fantasy crossover, rumored to be the largest Magic print run ever. If that doesn’t ring alarm bells, you might not know CCG history.

Here’s the takeaway:
Don’t presell more than you can comfortably refund.
Don’t order more than you can fully absorb.

That’s the balance we all have to strike—until something changes.

Paying Suppliers

 How We Pay Our Suppliers

For those curious about the trade, here’s how we handle supplier payments:

Payment Terms

While not a payment method, terms dictate when we pay our bills. They’re harder to secure these days, but I have 30-45 day terms with most suppliers. These terms influence how I buy products, with the goal of selling them before the bill comes due. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t.

But how do I actually send them money?

Payment Methods

1. Credit Card Up Front

   • Many suppliers accept credit cards without extra fees.
   • The IRS considers most cashback rewards non-taxable income, so I take advantage of that.
   • Since I personally guarantee my company’s credit, I also keep the rewards.

2. Mailing a Check

   • Yes, this is still a thing, and it’s how I pay most of my suppliers.
   • I use electronic banking through my local community bank.
   • Games Workshop recently announced they would no longer accept checks. For them, I wait until I’m past due or over my limit and then email them to charge a credit card on file.

3. Payment Portals

   • Almost every supplier has a portal now (looking at you, ACD).
   • Some link to credit cards, while others pull directly from my checking account.
   • Asmodee’s portal is my favorite—it allows scheduling payments on a credit card, meaning I can combine supplier terms with my credit card terms.

Managing Credit Cards

• I recently added a Capital One Spark Cash Plus, which has no preset spending limit.
• This helps spread out large purchases, preventing a single $40,000 bill from hitting right when sales tax and payroll are due. Instead, I make two $20,000 payments at different times of the month—far easier to manage.
• I use this card exclusively for two major vendors who account for half of my credit card expenses. It also simplifies QuickBooks entries with a single "Cost of Goods Sold" entry.

Previously, I relied on a Chase United credit card for travel rewards, but I don’t travel as much anymore. Watching my frequent flyer miles stack up into six figures, I decided it was time to switch things around.

Deal Breakers

Let’s talk about interrupting my flow—something I absolutely despise.

Take PG&E, for example. They’re the only bill (aside from taxes) that can’t be auto-paid. Every bill must be manually scheduled. It’s a failure point and a needless interruption.

The same logic applies to suppliers. If I can’t schedule a payment, my workflow is disrupted. Fortunately, most suppliers allow either scheduled payments or checks.

However, GTS Distribution is a headache. Paying by check often leads to delays, forcing many to make manual payments—something I consider unacceptable. Yet, I still use them, send my checks, and just hope they open their mail so the spice can flow.

Crown of the Grognard's Legacy

When I was in IT and finally had some money, I spent it on miniatures. I would drive out to Concord, near where my store is now, and visit Games Unlimited. This legacy game store was the king of their local market. They had a small mezzanine level where they kept their role playing stuff, including every Reaper miniature on its own hook. Nobody else had this breadth and depth of stock, which is why I drove 30 minutes to get there.

That mezzanine wasn't air conditioned, so in the summer months, you would rush up, grab what you were looking for, and exit as quickly as possible without getting scolded for running in the store. Our own mezzanine can't handle the heat when it's over 90 degrees, so I have more sympathy now.

I would take these minis to another store, Gamescape San Rafael, where the manager would speed paint them for me using an ink technique. I am told he got fired for doing this on the clock. My bad. I had an assembly line of recently bought, to be painted, and painted miniatures on their way to my table.

I once couldn't make it to Games Unlimited, so I started pulling large numbers of minis off the Gamescape wall to buy, when the clerk accused me of attempting to shoplift. Running a good game store is hard. You can see why I thought I could do better.

In case you were wondering, I was running a home brew Ptolus inspired game, based on Monte Cook's notes and some other odds and ends, before there was a Ptolus product. That Ptolus campaign lasted in various forms for 10 years.

Eventually I would open my store, becoming a small competitor of Games Unlimited, one of six stores within that recommended 10 minute drive time. Games Unlimited had the traditional young grognard at the counter, some relative of the owner, who would take your money while telling you your game was bad and you should be ashamed for playing it. He never told me this, but his customers would regale me with these tales of poor customer service.

I liked all the games and had time to listen to you tell me about your campaign. I was in a learning mode and legitimately fascinated. I also had every role playing game in distribution on my shelves. It was dumb, but it marked me as an ally to the RPG community. I was ignorant to most things not D&D, but open to learning. I also had every Reaper miniature in stock. So why brave the attic? Three years later I moved to a three times larger location, Games Unlimited's owner fortuitously retired at the same time, and they closed the shop.

The shop closed because the grognard couldn't wear the crown. I grabbed the crown as they departed, their last gasp an attempt to sell the store to a regional competitor, and hoped I would be worthy of it one day. Being all things to Games Unlimited customers, minus the grognard, became a goal. Of course, there were many things we did things differently, as I would explain to customers, because there was a reason they closed. We inherited a lot of their business. Six years later I was wearing the crown when realized I had become the surly grognard, at which point I left the front counter for good. The crown apparently has side effects.

Perhaps one day I will head west on a white ship with my fellow crown wearers, weary, a bit physically broken, but happy the business day is finally over and the doors are locked.

Crown of the Grognard's Legacy

Rare, requires attunement

This tarnished silver crown bears the faint embossing of miniature swords, dice, and scrolls along its band, and its crest is shaped like the mezzanine of a grand hall, complete with tiny shelves carved into the metal. Despite its unassuming appearance, the crown emanates an air of authority and nostalgia, its weight heavier than it seems, burdened with the memories of countless gamers and the spirits of bygone game stores.

Properties

• Merchant’s Wisdom. While attuned to the crown, you have proficiency in the Persuasion and Insight skills. If you are already proficient, your proficiency bonus is doubled for checks using these skills when interacting with customers or negotiating business deals.
• Stockmaster’s Precision. The crown grants you the uncanny ability to always know what’s in stock. As an action, you can name an item, and the crown will give you a mental image of its exact location within your shop or storage area.
• Beacon of Fellowship. While you wear the crown, customers and allies within 30 feet feel a faint sense of camaraderie and are subtly compelled to trust you. You gain advantage on Charisma (Persuasion) checks to foster goodwill or encourage purchases.

Curse: The Weight of the Crown

The crown is a relic of legacy, and its influence comes at a cost. Over time, the wearer begins to feel the strain of its expectations and the voices of customers past, present, and future weighing on their mind. This curse manifests subtly at first but worsens with time:

• Heat of the Mezzanine. The crown’s wearer becomes inexplicably sensitive to heat. Any area above 90 degrees Fahrenheit feels unbearable, causing the wearer to suffer disadvantage on Constitution saving throws made to resist exhaustion while in such conditions.
• Grognard's Burden. Each day you wear the crown, there is a cumulative 5% chance (to a maximum of 50%) that your attitude begins to sour into that of a traditional grognard. This manifests as surliness, dismissiveness, or an inability to recognize the value of other perspectives. This effect lasts until the crown is removed and a Remove Curse spell is cast.
• Indelible Nostalgia. The crown instills an unshakable longing for “the old days.” The wearer has disadvantage on Wisdom saving throws to resist becoming distracted by memories of their past or lamenting changes in their field.

History

The Crown of the Grognard’s Legacy is said to have passed from shop owner to shop owner, carried on the shoulders of those who sought to dominate their local market and make their mark in the gaming community. But each bearer learned the crown was more than a symbol of success—it demanded sacrifice. Legends say those who wore the crown too long became reclusive, bitter, and obsessed with their ideals of the "perfect store." The crown’s final bearer abandoned the counter entirely, realizing that its weight could only be endured for so long before it consumed them.

Do you dare to don the crown and seek to carry on the legacy, or will you forge your own path, free of its burdens?

Leadership

I went on a walk with my son yesterday. He's on the last stages of his Eagle Scout rank requirements and he's been roped into a leadership position. This is vexing for him. The younger boys look up to him and like any good leader, he's reluctant, doesn't feel up to the task, and would prefer if everyone would just do their damn jobs. They are not doing their damn jobs and he wants to fix this.

I gave him my advice. Most of us who lead are often thrust into the position out of necessity. We don't want the job. You can't run a business of any size other than subsistence, without eventually being a leader. The first lesson of leadership is nobody wants the job, but if we don't do it, then who will? Good leaders are reluctant leaders. Eager leaders are often the last ones you want leading. If you feel like you don't belong in the role, like an imposter, that's a good sign.

Leadership is about consensus building. There are times when top down leadership is necessary, often when it comes to safety. For example, it's reasonable to say if you don't bring your canteen and flashlight, you can't come on the camping trip. You are making it dangerous for yourself and others (real example). Most of the time, however, we want to build consensus both with other leaders and within the framework of the organization.

Before we have a meeting and make pronouncement, we need fact finding. What is it that is causing problems? What gear is being left behind and how do we prevent that? Who are the problem people? You discuss solutions with senior leadership, and if necessary, meet to implement those solutions.

Perhaps we have a gear check meeting a week before the camping trip to ensure the scouts have their "ten essential items" ready to go. We identify that it's the middle aged scouts who are the problem, old enough not to have their parents pack their gear, young enough not to have their gear sorted properly. You discuss first, meet later, then implement a plan. Meetings are where we finalize ideas we've already hashed out, if we need one at all.

We need to keep the organizational goal in mind. In scouts, they want to have fun. Everyone is there for camaraderie and enrichment. You can create a regimented, militaristic, hierarchical, hard-ass boy scout troop. In fact, my son came from one that was so difficult, it disbanded after that group of kids and their parents, who set the tone, aged out. When everyone quits, you've failed at management.

For my son, the goal is safety, enrichment, and fun. The leadership is going to be strict about safety. You can't go without your flashlight and water bottle. When the boys are too tired to do their hike because they've been playing video games on their phones until four in the morning, enrichment suffers. And when everyone works twice as hard when a small group of kids won't do their assigned tasks, it's certainly not fun. The approach is as light a hand as possible to keep everyone safe, engaged, and having fun.

Who would have thought I would know anything about this stuff? Few of us business owners have formal management training. We are reluctantly thrust into the position, wishing our reports would just do their damn jobs. We want as light a hand as possible, as in the boy scout example. I expect many store owners have the same leadership objectives as my son: safety, fun, and that elusive enrichment.

October Dip

My store has seen tremendous sales growth post COVID, a lot of that is a result of expanding inventory. Common in the game trade, we are somewhat dependent on new releases for profitability. We are "front list driven," meaning we make our money on new stuff, rather than selling the same old stuff. October has always been a slow month, as there must be some common wisdom to avoid new releases in this month. I'm talking about my top 20 publishers that make up 80% of our sales. There are plenty of board games and RPGs releasing right now that will languish for another six weeks. 

I have a calendar spreadsheet tracking sales, and when there's a projected profitable release, I change the background of that day to green. These green days help me forecast. September and November have three "green days," releases where we'll make windfall profits. October has none, although the one off October release of the D&D Dungeon Master's Guide might move the needle. 

This pattern of hot September and November and slow October repeats itself year after year. I draw down inventory in September and try not to spend money, knowing bills will be due in a lean October. I may borrow money in October to cover expenses and pay it off with holiday sales (hopefully). The October dip is about a 30-40% decline compared to sales in September and November. This pattern has repeated for as long as I've run the business, although the depth of the dip is exaggerated because of the increased height of the surrounding months. 

The solution, if there is one, is attempt to make your own rain. Perhaps have special sales in October, although people are not buying as much (perhaps why releases are thin). We've had a couple big clearance sales. I would prefer to shift sales to Black Friday, but November doesn't need any help. October sales are up 10% so far this month, compared to last October, but that's not enough. Perhaps there is no solution. Every business will have a slowest month. Some will know it in advance. As much as it pains me to save up for slow times, at the moment that's the strategy that seems to work best. It does feel defeatist. I want to be the raging bear all the time. I don't want to hibernate. Rarr.

Remote Management and Time Abundance

I've been on a path to reclaim my time after many years of long hours. This is a desirable entrepreneurial goal, although in my trade, it's frowned upon. Small business requires passion, connection with the community, intense degrees of product knowledge, and an always-on mentality of monitoring social media and responding to customers. Signs of disconnecting, signs of financial progress, are looked down upon by both customers and industry peers. Well, let them watch.

Step one is deciding it's your money or your life, and you no longer care what other people think. This is not to say you let things slip, disengage, become unresponsive, but you simply value your time away from the business and take steps to maximize that time. This huge psychological barrier, keeping you chained to the business, is often self imposed. 

The analogy I like to use is the circus elephant. The baby elephant has a small chain attached to its leg and it learns quickly it can't escape the chain as it pulls against it. As the elephant becomes an adult, it could easily pull up the stake that chain is attached to, but it learned as a baby it couldn't get away. That's what it can be like working in your small business. You can't get away, because you've conditioned yourself to this previous truth, after many years of long hours. 

At a certain point in growth, it's entirely possible to simply not work a part of the business you don't like, or take a job your can do from home. My manager had to fire me from the counter in year nine. I was burned out, surly, and didn't belong as the front man of the business. Many people would have quit in this position. I had the luxury of choice, with the chain off my leg. I wonder how many years I worked the counter with that chain? 

Step two is developing processes, procedures and most importantly, the culture that allows you not to be there all the time. Policies and procedures are necessary for operational survival with a qualified manager, while the culture is the strategy that leads to more or better processes and procedures. Having a moral compass, understanding employees come first, that profitability is important, that everyone who walks through the door deserves respect, prevents many problems that lead to phone calls in the middle of the night. A solid culture means sometimes staff push back on you, because we don't do things like that here. Culture is not top down, culture is a promise we make to each other.

Step three is figuring out what work, if any, you should continue doing. I spent a couple months traveling six years ago, while the entire store was delegated to a manager. The store did not fail, but it was essentially in a holding pattern. I've been to stores where the manager has left and a new one hasn't been hired yet, and it's like a zombie circus, where employees just keep doing the same things each day, although they've become stale and ineffective. I've been doing this long enough that I can recognize the signs of the undead. A store is a dynamic environment and requires dynamic management. It's unlikely you will get that for long by entirely delegating the business. 

My next foray into remote management came four years ago after COVID. I had completely taken back the store as the sole employee for a time, and I identified key elements of the business that drove growth, but also jobs I wanted to do. I wouldn't have understood this without a complete shut down and ramp up. 

Buying product was 10% of my job while I worked at the store, a necessary nuisance that interrupted my time with customers. When I took that 10% of my job home, it exploded into a full work week. Thankfully I had new money in the business to support this expansion, which resulted in about a half a million dollars a year of permanent sales growth. I began to enjoy buying, and although I know how I could be better at it if I were there, it seemed to be the key to successful remote management. I could grow the store remotely as a buyer. The down side is it ended up expanding into a pretty normal work week, albeit one that could be time shifted. If you can't make time, at least shift time.

Step four is similar to what one encounters when contemplating retirement. You might have millions of dollars in the bank, as some of my retirement age friends do, but you need something to retire to, not retire from. Without the direction of your next step, you will be like the adult elephant with a little chain on its leg. The same is true when you begin sculpting out time from your small business. If you don't have something you want to do with that time, you will either keep on trucking at the counter, or simply sit around lonely at home. For the vast number of my peers in the hobby game trade, they would honestly rather be at work. Sometimes I would too!

I have a dream of long term travel. Last year I spent four months on the road in my RV with my son. We traveled and lived throughout Central Mexico, exploring 31 Pueblos Magicos, or magical towns (there are over 150). We had adventures, immersed ourselves in the culture, had various hardships and enjoyed an amazing trip with plans for future trips in coming years. The business coincidentally experienced an enormous bubble during this time, making it appear like I must be some sort of financial genius. 

On our way back, the bubble burst and there was a realization I was probably a few years out from having the funds to take a trip like that again. It was more expensive than we budgeted, and the business return to normal required a steady hand back on the wheel. From a buyer perspective, we had to analyze and re-imagine some of what we were doing. This year I've lived on half the money I spent last year. Which brings me to another point.

Step Five, which could be in a different order, is deciding what's enough. At a certain point in your life, you may realize debt is the promise of future work. I would like a bigger house in a nicer area, but I don't want to work any harder for it. I would like to renovate my house, but I don't want to work any harder for that. You might want a new car, but are you willing to work harder, put in longer hours or more years working? If you're going to work harder and longer anyway, you can find yourself in a debt trap. I am at the stage where I have enough, granted, I have an expensive RV with payments and fees, but that was part of my escape plan. Anything new in my life needs to be paid with cash, because I don't want to work any more than I do now. 

This year I'm on the beach, to use a consulting term. I am taking a year off from travel. I am attempting not to promise myself future work by engaging in new schemes involving debt. Next year I hope to take a trip for two or three months, but it's honestly fifty-fifty whether that will happen. 

Step Six, which also could be in a different order, is understanding the limitations of delegation. Anyone who manages people understands the job won't be done exactly as you like. In the case of small business, it's also likely you will be the driver of innovation. If you're not willing to come in and innovate, it's likely you'll know precisely what needs to get done, but it simply won't ever happen. Remote working means you come in and do the innovation yourself, if that's what you want to happen, or accept you don't have the people on staff to make those projects happen. 

This is where the absurd degree of small business expectations is compromised by your personal goals. You will not have the best business you could imagine and you will have to live with that compromise. You might know the answers to all the questions, but you'll leave the solutions unimplemented in your environment. So because of this, we don't talk about the topic of disengagement. Best practices are often designed for survival and profitability, not personal happiness. Work-life balance is a term used by employees, not owners. Step six is re-defining what success looks like. Step six is a necessary compromise. Success, in this model, is owning your time completely. I have wealthy friends who are envious I've managed this. It doesn't come without sacrifice. But you might decide to make that sacrifice when you realize what you have is enough.