Balancing supply, demand, allocations, and the realities of a collector-driven market.
Pricing hot Pokémon products isn’t just about looking at TCGplayer and slapping on a price tag. It's a balancing act between cash flow, allocations, local demand, and national market trends. Here’s a look at how I approach it—and why it’s more complicated than it might seem.
The First Variable: Paying the Bill
When I receive a Pokémon set, I usually have 30 days to pay the invoice. However, most sets are meant to last through a 90-day release cycle. I don’t want to sell out in 30 days just to cover the bill. I'd rather pace my sales over the full release period and focus on maximizing value, not just speed.
Being a legitimate Pokémon retailer also means I need to have Pokémon product available consistently. Going two out of every three months without stock damages customer trust—and it's often the result of allocation issues.
Allocation Lessons from the Auto World
To illustrate this, let’s talk about BMW.
Years ago, I looked into buying one and learned their dealerships didn’t play the end-of-month sales game. Why? Because they operate on yearly product allocations. If a dealer only gets 150 cars a year, there’s no reason to hustle to sell car #100 in July. They can’t call the factory and get more.
Instead, they maximize profit per unit and pace their sales based on the year’s allocation. I once found a loophole with European delivery, which didn’t pull from the dealership’s allocation—similar to a customer walking into a game store and asking to buy product direct from the distributor, with the store just passing it through for a small margin.
Some dealers said yes. Others said no. But the model is the same: allocation controls behavior.
Snowy Munich in January on summer performance tires is another story...
Pokémon Supply: 30-Day Invoice, 90-Day Plan
Back to Pokémon. Even though my bill is due in 30 days, the more important variable is how long the product needs to last. If my allocation is meant to cover 90 days, I plan accordingly.
This is where supply-side logic becomes critical—especially in a collectibles market where reprints aren’t guaranteed.
Demand: Local Appetite vs. Online Market
On the demand side, I consider both local interest and national pricing trends. Right now, a booster box of Journey Together is selling online for $244. My customers know this. If my price is even a bit higher, they’ll shop online instead.
At this high price point, price sensitivity increases. People compare. They wait. They choose convenience or savings.
Locally, Journey Together is cold. So many customers have washed their hands of it, they’re already asking to preorder the next set—which, ironically, I have even less faith in. I don’t want to sell them a $450 box with unknown supply and potential price collapse. And let’s be honest: they don’t want a $450 box. They want a $145 one.
Sometimes, Market Prices Leave Your Community Behind
If the market price is too high for your local scene, you’ll eventually need to adjust downward to build momentum. But for me, right now, that’s not urgent. My Journey Together allocation was slashed. I have about 75% of my usual quantity—and it needs to last one to three months.
At current prices, that’s only about a three-week supply—not ideal. If sales were hotter, I’d raise prices above market. If I needed to move it fast, I’d price well below. That’s exactly what I’m considering for the slow-moving One Piece set right now.
Why This Looks Like a Black Box
To my staff and customers, pricing sometimes feels arbitrary. They’ll notice when we’re above or below market and ask why. The truth is, I’m often not watching the market that closely—until sales start changing. Sales velocity is my signal. When it shifts, I look at pricing. Pricing, after all, is a variable within that velocity.
What I Really Want (And Probably Won’t Get)
Ideally, I’d have unlimited Pokémon boxes selling at a healthy 35% margin. Instead, I get limited product, slower sales, and a higher 62% margin. As a store owner, I don’t want to deal with allocations and math problems—I want happy customers and a steady flow of product.
But that’s not the system we’re in.
And while many of my peers are angry with Pokémon for underprinting sets, I’m not sure who’s at fault. Right now, there’s nothing but Pokétrash left to order. My backorders trickle in, but the rest of the product line is obliterated.
Publishers often claim victory when a set sells out—but for stores, that’s rarely a win.
The Kid Problem
Many Pokémon customers are kids. A $244 box means $6.78 per pack. I can’t sell them for less—although some official events distort pricing with artificially low promos. I also can’t steer them to cheaper sets, because I simply don’t have anything else.
That’s the real dilemma: skating from one allocation-restricted CCG release to the next while trying to run the rest of the store like a normal business. For some game stores, this CCG nonsense is the business.
Magic Isn’t Much Better
Magic players aren’t immune to the chaos, either. There’s a ton of speculation around the Final Fantasy crossover, rumored to be the largest Magic print run ever. If that doesn’t ring alarm bells, you might not know CCG history.
Here’s the takeaway:
Don’t presell more than you can comfortably refund.
Don’t order more than you can fully absorb.
That’s the balance we all have to strike—until something changes.
